I was recently asked, “Did the Iraq War foment the Arab spring? Is this even a legitimate question?”
To which I responded:
Yes, absolutely a legitimate question. Although I would do the professory thing and say, well, do you mean it was the sole and exclusive catalyst/cause? or it was a factor? Maybe because my likely answer would be, well, no it didn’t foment it, … but I can imagine a convincing argument saying that in particular places the experience of Iraq post-Saddam provided a… what? a model? an inspiration?
Now that I am thinking of it I can’t really make the argument, but I am sure someone could. Two things I would add. First, i think this will be a wrestling point for Pres. Bush’s legacy for decades, where those originally in favor of the war say, ‘see, we told you it would cause dominoes to fall.” Second, i don’t think we really know yet what the Arab spring was and what its final status will be; many are happy as hell Mubarak is gone from Egypt, but if in a few years a harsh military dictatorship of a new kind, or an repressive Islamic regime is in place, will that have been consider progress or just movement? I am not saying this will happen, but that it is too early to tell and that until we have a better sense, it is hard to know how to judge.
