Ok, first thing, I am not too embarrassed to admit I really did not think Mitt would choose Paul. Everything thing about Romney’s style and campaign has led me to view him as a cautious, careful politician. One who tries little new, but wants to perfect the doing of what has been done before. Thus for all the titillation of running mate choices like Marco Rubio or Chris Christie, or yes, Paul Ryan, it seemed to me that it was likely he would choose a quiet gray suit like himself, Rob Portman or Tim Pawlenty. So, to me, this choice is the most interesting thing Mitt Romney has done as a presidential candidate because it was an unpredictable choice from Mister Predictable. I am not Sarah Palin surprised, but let’s say Dick Cheney surprised.
So, what to make of the choice, what does it say of Mitt? What does it do to the campaign? How much will help (or hurt) Romney’s chances in November?
Let’s start with the last question. Quick a question for you. When was the last time you voted for a presidential ticket (or against it) because of the vice-presidential choice. Come on, be honest. Was it Lieberman that gave you the confidence to vote for Gore? Did Kemp choice make Dole so much more palatable? Or Cheney what gave Bush the edge to sweep through the Electoral College in 2000? I would suggest that unless you lived in Connecticut, Kansas or Wyoming (and even then) the chances likely are the answers were: nope, nope and nope. There is just no evidence anywhere that vice-presidential choices have any significant positive effect for the ticket except maybe a point or two in the home state and a nice bump in the national polls for a few days or a week. As Texas Governor Rick Perry said in a candid moment: “There are great and talented people out there, but vice presidential candidates are interesting choices that will probably only make two or three days’ worth of news, unless they make some huge gaffe,” Perry told CNN in an interview at the Republican Governors Association retreat in Aspen, Colorado.
Now, in this case, I think it could make a difference because of Paul Ryan himself and because of what that says about Mitt. Ryan is most famous for a long term budget proposal, officially “The Path to Prosperity” but often referred to as the eponymous Ryan Plan. He first began developing this as a member of the minority in Congress, but then gave it a huge boost when he became the chair of the House Budget Committee in 2011. Now is not the time to dissect that Plan in detail except to note the following. It is a strong visionary or ideologically extreme plan (take your choice) to reorient the role of the Federal government and its entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare and the taxes and budget that support it. While having endorsed it, Romney over the last many months has refused to be tied down to any set of very clear proposals for such matters, preferring to speak in broad generalities about how he will do things differently from Pres. Obama if elected. This now puts Ryan’s plan and its priorities at the center of the campaign.
It is too early to determine the effect of that but it does show to me that Romney, on August 11, 2012, much like John McCain choosing Sarah Palin on August 29, 2008, needs to use his VP choice to signal his bona fides to his own party. That is, the choice here is not one of a candidate– in the days and weeks prior to his nominating convention– seeking to increase his appeal to independent voters, and therefore broaden his base of support, in anticipation of the fall campaign. Rather this reveals a candidate demonstrating to the core of his party that, “really, you can trust me.” It is hard to remember now, but when then Governor George W. Bush chose Dick Cheney, he seemed to choose a quiet steady hand who could provide worldly wisdom and gravitas (of course few imagined in those early days that Cheney’s worldly wisdom would eventually advocate for the dark side, thereby suggesting his vice presidential steady hand had become more like Darth Vader’s breath-sucking throat grip). Conversely, while Romney’s choice might be a bit of a surprise to me, it certainly comes as a great comfort to the Republican power brokers like the Wall Street Journal editorial page and the Weekly Standard’s William Kristol and Stephen Hayes.
But then, is this a good place for Mitt to be? Everything I read and hear and see about Mitt Romney is that he is a trimmer to the core. But, what is a trimmer to do when to win an election he needs to pander to independents but hasn’t finished pandering to the elements of his party that independents find anathema? Chose Palin? Choose Ryan? Well, at least unlike McCain, Romney is a skilled and well-honed political trimmer. It is easier for him to sell what he doesn’t believe because it is so unclear what he believes, other than that he should be president.
The best thing about the choice of Ryan from this political observer’s perspective is that it increases the likelihood of adding more serious policy debate. I don’t think it is a bad thing to have campaigns indulge in claims and counterclaims about Bain Capital and William Ayers; everything a campaign does signals something about itself as well as the other side. But this choice can expand that debate to include real choices about Social Security, Medicare and much of the infrastructure of governance that has oriented the USA for the past several generations. In other words, after the skirmishes of the post primary season, the campaign of Presidential Campaign of 2012 has really begun.
