Quest for a Third Ring: 2013 San Francisco Giants Season Preview, By Chuck Strom

Baseball writers currently use a lot of sabermetrics to judge a team’s prospects for an upcoming season, carefully calibrating the odds of individual players either regressing in their performance or breaking out to their full potential. Sophisticated as they may be in their analysis, however, their predictions still center on two factors: past performance and whatever trades and signings that have taken place over the winter. Consequently their opinions can be swayed inordinately by signings of flashy free agents or the belief that last year’s statistically improbable playoff magic will not apply on Opening Day.

In other words, the Los Angeles Dodgers with their new and wildly expensive roster have been a sexier pick to win the National League West Division in 2013 than the 2012 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants, who enter the new season with virtually the same power-challenged roster that drank victory champagne last October. Giant fans should not be disgruntled at this. Only unkind souls glory in a rival’s misfortune, and even the Dodgers deserved better than the larcenous McCourt family as owners. As for the Giants, the disrespect card is one of the most effective motivational tools in sports, and one can expect manager Bruce Bochy to use it liberally in the clubhouse. He might also hope that his players can catch opponents off guard at the start of the season even as they wear championship patches on their sleeves.

Several players will be important to watch in order to assess the Giants’ likelihood of a return trip to the Series. As Jonah Keri, the house baseball writer for Grantland, recently noted in his season preview article on the team, most of their roster is on the good side of thirty, and two of its youngest members, Brandons Crawford and Belt, appear poised to improve in 2013 and offset any post-championship hangovers from their older teammates. Crawford seems a surer bet in this regard, since he has already established his defensive prowess at shortstop and needs to hit only slightly north of .250 to assure his place on the team. The pressure is greater on Belt, who at first base occupies a position well known for its requirement for offensive production. He has shown occasional promise, particularly in the second half of last season, but he will need to find a way to hit and drive in runs more consistently in a park that is particularly hard on left-handed power hitters. In this, as well as his superior fielding skills, he is much like his predecessor J. T. Snow, who had to make his own hitting adjustments after moving into AT&T Park in 2000. Snow has worked with the Giants in a variety of capacities since his retirement, so we can assume that he and Belt have already discussed the matter.

The Giants also hope for a resurgence from their two-time Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum, whose problems with mechanics and confidence resulted in a 5.18 ERA in 2012, highest among National League starters and an important reason why the Giants did not take command of the 2012 NL West race until September. No one is more aware than Lincecum of his need to reassert his dominance. He is due for a new contract at the end of the year, and teams do not pay $20 million annually to middle relievers, even when they perform as well as he did during the 2012 Series. He shows every sign of dedicating himself to the task, including a new haircut and a training regimen that presumably includes fewer trips to In-N-Out. His preseason so far has been shaky due to a blister on his pitching hand, but the main questions will be if his fastball will return to its mid-90s velocity or, if not, whether he can adjust more to outthinking hitters than overpowering them.

Then, there is Barry Zito, who is in the final guaranteed year of his notorious seven-year contract, though an $18 million option will vest in 2014 if he pitches 200 innings this season. His history since joining the team in 2007 is simple to interpret. When he throws his breaking pitches for strikes, he handles tough lineups with ease. When his control is off, he is left with his mid-80s fastball, which is the baseball equivalent of bringing a knife to a gunfight. His 15-8 record in 2012 and subsequent heroics in the postseason did much to resurrect his career and earn the long-delayed affection of Giant fans, and he has looked good so far in spring training, striking out the side in a recent outing against the Texas Rangers. He remains a question mark for 2013, however, if only because he is still hard to watch on the mound without fear that at any moment his curve ball could desert him.

A few other Giants, such as Pablo Sandoval and reserve catcher Hector Sanchez, have minor aches and pains that may cause them to miss a few games early on, but overall the team’s health appears to be good. If it stays that way, and if the Giants manage not to lose a crucial player in mid-season for the third year in a row, they should be tough to beat in 2013. A return trip to the Series is a reasonable possibility though far from a certainty, especially since the Washington Nationals do not plan to shut down Steven Strasburg again in September and short-circuit themselves for October. That these two teams and the Series can be mentioned plausibly in the same sentence speaks volumes about how much the balance of power in baseball has shifted in recent years, a refreshing change for those tired of hearing about the Yankees and Red Sox, who incredibly might drag the bottom of the American League East in 2013. Even apart from the embarrassment of riches now enjoyed by the Giants, this is good for baseball.

– Chuck Strom