Madison Bumgarner is the most dominant pitcher still throwing in October. Especially if he faces Royals pitcher James Shields again, you can pencil in a victory for Game 5 in San Francisco when he makes his next scheduled start. There might be some temptation to move him up to Game 4 on three days of rest so that he could be available to start a Game 7. I would not recommend that to Giants manager Bruce Bochy. Not that Bumgarner couldn’t make a Game 4 start, but there is always the risk of him not being quite as effective. The Giants absolutely must win his next start if they are to beat the Royals, and anything that could possibly interfere with that prospect is a high-risk and low-benefit move to be avoided at all costs. Bumgarner could still be available for a Game 7 with two days’ rest as well as three. Not to start, obviously, but he could still come in for a couple of innings to stop any bleeding that threatened to occur. Hopefully, Bochy will remember this.
Unfortunately, the rest of the Giants rotation is a bunch of question marks, disturbingly illustrated by a graphic during the Game 1 broadcast showing the losing regular season records of all of the starting pitchers not named Bumgarner. I don’t think the situation is as dire as it looked, but it’s certainly why Bochy has insisted on keeping Yusmeiro Petit available to bail out the Giants for any of those games if needed. Bochy obviously remembers how useful Tim Lincecum was for that purpose in 2012 and feels that Petit is more valuable in that role than as another starter. If Timmy hadn’t tweaked his back last night, Bochy could have considered restoring him to that role and starting Petit, but Timmy’s injury probably eliminated that possibility. Seeing Timmy come out with the trainer was far more alarming to me than the result on the scoreboard, particularly since he had looked pretty good on the mound to that point. Such are the fortunes of October.
The state of the Giants bullpen, unfortunately, isn’t much better than the rotation. Bochy should have known better in Game 2, but it should now be abundantly clear that there are only four Giants relievers other than Petit that can be trusted to come out of the bullpen for any kind of high-leverage situation: Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, and the closer Santiago Casilla. When I saw Bochy call Jean Machi out of the bullpen to relieve starter Jake Peavy, I wanted ask Bochy through the TV screen if he was crazy. A 2-2 game on the line with men on first and second with no outs, and Bochy calls in a pitcher who hasn’t retired a single meaningful hitter in October? Maybe he saw Machi throw well in the pen, but Cardinals manager Mike Matheny thought Michael Wacha had good stuff, too, and we all know how that turned out. Bochy has used up his mistake allowance for the Series. He had better not screw up that way again.
The Kansas City Royals have their issues, too, most importantly a number-one pitcher who really hasn’t been on his game at all in October. Pitching Shields against Bumgarner, as I have mentioned, basically concedes two wins to the Giants, and it says much about the rest of the team that many observers give the Royals at least an even chance of sending the Giants home without a championship. It was nice to see Buster Posey gun down Alcides Escobar on a steal attempt in Game 2, but otherwise the speed and toughness of the Royals lineup has come as advertised. The flamethrowers in the Royals’ bullpen appear to have lived up to their reputations as well, but they really haven’t been tested yet. It’s one thing to mow hitters down in garbage time, as the Royals bullpen did last night. It is an entirely different task, however, when the game is close and the Giants are determinedly grinding out their at-bats. That may well be the deciding matchup of the Series.
Game 3 in San Francisco tomorrow night.
