With Kevin Durant to the Brooklyn Nets and Kawhi Leonard to the LA Clippers, the major free agent moves in this NBA off-season have completed, with some lower-tier signings and trades to follow in the coming weeks. A few hot takes are in order:
1. The 2019-20 NBA season may well have been saved by Kawhi’s choice of the Clippers over the LA Lakers. A LeBron-Davis-Kawhi Big Three would have made LeBron’s Miami Heat super-team look positively G-league, and all the complaints about the drama-sucking Warriors dominance would have paled in comparison to what we would have been hearing about the Lakers. Just as well that it didn’t happen. Something would have been terribly wrong if a franchise could exude incompetence as the Lakers have done in recent months and still end up with the big prize.
2. It’s not news that the NBA is a superstar-driven league, but the Paul George trade from the OKC Thunder to the Clippers as part of the Kawhi deal has sent a message to all the league’s teams: keep your stars happy, or they’ll jump ship regardless of contracts. George had two years remaining on his, but when Kawhi persuaded him to demand a trade, OKC had little choice but to oblige, having seen what happened to the Pelicans when the first Anthony Davis trade attempt fell through. The unprecedented haul of future draft picks the Thunder got in return should set them up for the rebuild that was likely on the horizon in any case, but for now, this is a kick in the teeth to Russ Westbrook and Thunder fans, and one has to feel for them. There, but for the mood of every team’s stars, go the dreams of every NBA fan in the league.
3. Superstars may have more power than ever to choose their locations, but this doesn’t eliminate the need of front offices and owners to demonstrate competence. The New York Knicks, who had cleared cap space for deals for KD and Kyrie Irving that appeared all but done, got no takers for their money, and the consensus was that the notorious dysfunction of James Dolan and the Knicks front office ultimately scared off KD and Irving and led them to take their business to New York’s outer borough. Left empty-handed, the Knicks then signed a bunch of warm bodies to short contracts in the hope for better luck when Giannis hits free-agency in 2021. What a depressing state of affairs. It shows that nothing kills a franchise more effectively than a bad owner.
4. For all of the praise being heaped on the Nets for their acquisitions, it seems like more should be written about the risk they are taking with pinning their future on KD and Kyrie. For all of his prior greatness, KD’s recovery from his Achilles injury is very much open to question, and Kyrie has an extensive injury resume of his own. Discerning Nets fans, assuming there are any in probably one of the smallest fan bases in the NBA, might wonder if they will actually see both of these guys on the court at the same time at the some point in the future. One can also note that the same dynamics that brought them to Brooklyn can take them away just as fast. Both KD and Kyrie have made reputations for being high-maintenance personalities–the Nets front office and coaching staff with have their hands full in keeping them from looking toward the next town as their ultimate paradise.
5. It is now certain that the Warriors era is over, but their trade for D’Angelo Russell suggests that the Dubs aren’t ready for the league to throw dirt on them just yet, even if the consensus is that Russell could be trade bait once Klay Thompson recovers from his knee injury. The Dubs weren’t going to open their new palace with just Steph and Draymond and G-league call-ups. They still won’t likely be in the top tier of the Western Conference, now crowded with both LA teams and the Utah Jazz, the Blazers, and possibly Nuggets and Rockets in the mix, but a winning record and a #7 or #8 seed is not out of the realm of possibility for the Dubs, who could be a dangerous opponent for whatever high-seeded team draws them in the 2020 playoffs.
6. Where, then, do the Blazers fit in all of this? The consensus was that they needed to acquire one more star to contend in the restructured Western Conference, but so far their moves have mostly been to exchange players with expiring contracts for other players with expiring contracts. Perhaps the Blazers front office believes that their acquisitions will benefit from changes of scenery, but it looks more like they may be setting up their big move for next summer when the contracts expire and free up cap space. The 2020 free agent class does not have quite the top end of this year’s, but the Blazers may have their eye on one or two as their final component to contend for a Finals. Their current cap situation may have dictated this strategy, and the Blazers still will likely contend for a top-half seed in the Western Conference, but one has to wonder if they should have tried harder for an impact trade this year. As the Paul George deal indicates, anything is possible in today’s NBA. Hopefully it won’t turn out that the Blazers should have dreamed bigger in this moment.
The dust has now settled, with no single team an overwhelming favorite for the 2020 title. The NBA is still up for grabs.
